Fueling a fossil fuels glut?

NEWS ABOUT NEW FINDS OF natural gas and crude oil fields has become regular in this region this year.  Every week, we are bombarded with the good news of a new oil find inn Kenya of LNG find in Tanzania.

Our neighbours such as Uganda and South Sudan have been there before. Uganda is expected to start producing  20,000 barrels per day(bpd) soon; South Sudan has just shut down its 355,000 barrels per day wells.

News in Kenya is that the crude oil potential  exceeds expectations. In Tanzania reports of new finds of natural gas  wells are almost a weekly thing. 

We should cheer the new finds. After oil are causes for abundance elsewhere. But these news began to worry me. No I am not worried about  civil strive. I am worried about Economics of fuels: Could we be fueling a fuel glut in future? But I thought I was just letting my mind run wild until I stumbled  on a review of a paper  by a senior fellow at Harvard University, who thinks in the same lines.

He argues that new oil finds coupled with advances in extraction technologies could pump 110 million barrels per day by 2020 just when the oilfields in East Africa are expected to come on stream. At that time production could exceed demand leading low crude prices. 

Could our investment go to waste?  or are our imaginations running wild?
 Read  the review at http://www.thenewamerican.com/economy/markets/item/11942-harvard-senior-fellow-peak-oil-is-history

Twenty sixteen

Geothermal steam wells. Coming to the rescue

TWENTY SIXTEEN. No twenty Fourteen. Twenty sixteen is the year by when Kenya's electricity supply will be boosted by an estimated 1432MW from clean energy sources, including wind power and geothermal. And the cost of energy will decline by nearly 10 US cents.

But twenty fourteen is also significant. That is when these sources will begin coming on stream. The players in this sector are going full steam to beat the target time.

AWind Turbine: A clean energy generator

The players include; Geothermal Development Corporation (GDC); Kenya Electricity generating Company (KenGen) and Lake Turkana wind power project.  Both KenGen and GDC are wholly government owned. Lake Turkana wind power ltd is a privately owned company whose goal is to generate some 300MW into the national grid from wind power.

GDC was set to spearhead the development of geothermal power. Kenya is said to have a capacity to generate 10,000MW of electricity from geothermal sources. GDC expects to have developed some 5500MW by 2030. Its initial output will be 400MW to come on stream in 2016. GDC develops the steam wells for concessioning to private power producers.

KenGen on the other hand, the only power generator in the country expects to add some 1832 MW into the national grid by 2016 from various sources including Hydro, Thermal Geothermal and even coal.

Hydro electric Dam; Taking a back seat

 In short, by 2016 Kengen will double its current capacity to 3000MW of which geothermal will the dominant source generating 882MW; Hydro at 820 MW; coal 600MW; wind 62 MW. The viability of a 150MW windfarm is being studied at Marsabit Country. There is also potential for a 400MW import from Ethiopia and another 300MW LNG import from Tanzania.

Could Fossil Fuels pose a security risk in eastern Africa?

Guarding Crude oil Refinery in South Sudan.

SOUTH SUDAN vs.SUDAN,TANZANIA vs.MALAWI, KENYA vs SOMALIA.. There is a worrying growth of boundary disputes in eastern Africa. The quarrels, given what is at stake, pose a risk of violence in the region. The region has become significant producer fossil fuels. News of discovery of oil or LNG dominated the Pages in the first half- of this year. Visit http://eaers.blogspot.com/2012/03/eastern-africa-coast-emerging-fossil_28.html

To date, an estimated 100 trillion cubic Feet (tcf), of recoverable LNG had been discovered in Tanzania and Mozambique. Kenya for the first time joined Uganda and South Sudan in the crude oil producing class. Kenya is also seeking for LNG for it is estimated that some 286 trillion cubic feet lie off the eastern Africa coast, Kenya included.

 Sadly, the frequent discoveries are rekindling long ignored boundary disputes in the region. Previously silent disputes , such as the Tanzania- Malawi and the Kenya-Somali maritime border are becoming loud and public. Few in these countries knew of the 50 year- old disputes. To many observers in the region, the only border dispute existed between the Sudans.

This dispute was, and still is, an attempt by Sudan to sabotage the independence of the South which impoverished Sudan. At her independence last year, South Sudan took with her 75 per of Sudan's oil output, leaving with a paltry 25 per cent or 125,000 barrels per day. Khartoum then sought to sabotage Juba by raising the cost-transporting crude from the South.

Basically the dispute is about how Khartoum can plug the financial hole left by the departure of the South which turned off the taps for some 350,000 barrels of crude a day. Before the South's independence, Sudan generated some US$15-US$20 billion a year in oil revenue. The cessation of the South reduced that to just about $3.5 billion to $5.0 billion a year depending on the world market prices. Khartoum had been reduced to a pauper by just a stroke of a pen. See http://eaers.blogspot.com/2011/12/revealed-why-frequent-spats-among.html

Plans ready for 100MW thermal power by 2014

The Citizen Reporters
Dar es Salaam. Tanzania’s energy sector is heading for good tidings, going by the announcement issued yesterday to the effect that the country will start producing geothermal power in the near future. 

Geothermal power refers to electricity that is produced by harnessing internal heat of the earth. Further prospects of more electricity came from the launch of the board of director for a joint venture company, which seeks to produce power from coal as at the Mchuchuma and Liganga fields.

While the geothermal project targets at producing 100MW within the next two years, a foreign company, Tanzania China International Mineral Resources Limited (TCIMR), plans to produce 300MW by the year 2014. Both projects would be implemented in Mbeya Region. While TCIMR is a joint venture between National Development Corporation (NDC) and a Chinese company, Sichuan Hongda, the geothermal project would be carried out by Geothermal Power (Tanzania), a local company.

Information released in Dar es Salaam yesterday said that TCIMR plans to start exploration work after six months. While China Development Bank has provided a $2.4 billion loan for the project, the company itself has made available $600 million, making it the single largest investment venture in East Africa.Geothermal Power (Tanzania) Limited chairman Graeme Robertson told reporters in Dar es Salaam yesterday that the company has initially invested $5 million (about Sh8 billion) for the project.

Kenya turns to geothermal and wind power in a big way

A Geothermal Plant

 KENYA IS FAST WEANING itself of dependence from hydro-generated electricity to other sources of renewable sources of energy such as wind and geothermal. The shift, which has been in the making for a long time has picked up pace and, in a decade or so, hydro will be an insignificant source of electric generation.

Currently, hydro is the leading source generating a 766.88MW which forms 65 per cent of the KenGen’s installed capacity. KenGen is the power generating utility. Kenya’s generating capacity of 1400MW serves only 14 per cent of the Population. And the power is expensive.

However, the power generating company has firmly shifted its guns and is now targeting renewable sources of energy. It is now focused on developing geothermal and wind power as alternatives sources. 

A wind Power

In its current development programme which ends in 2016, the company will increase its power generating capacity by an additional 1832 MW by 2016.  Of these, Hydro will generate an additional only 53MW while wind power will generate an additional 56.8 MW, geothermal will generate an additional 732MW over the same period. Coal will produce some 600MW while an LNG project to produce 300MW is being studied. Also being studied is another wind farm based in Marsabit County in Northern Kenya that potentially can generate 150MW.

In short, by 2016 Kengen’s 3000MW generating capacity will be dominated by geothermal at 882MW; Hydro at 820 MW; coal 600MW; wind 62 MW. If the Lake Turkana wind farm is added to the grid, Kenya’s wind power capacity will approach 400MW.

Geothermal energy is the natural heat stored within the earth’s crust. The energy is manifested on the earth’s surface in the form of fumaroles, hot springs and hot and altered grounds. To extract this energy, wells are drilled to tap steam and water at high temperatures (250-350°C) and pressures (600-1200 PSI) at depths of 1-3 km. For electricity generation, the steam is piped to a turbine, which rotates a generator to produce electrical energy.

Kenya is the leader in geothermal power generation in Africa having built its first geothermal power in early 1980s. It now generates some 150MW from two geothermal plants. The first plant was the Olkaria I Power Station which was also the first in Africa. The 45 MW plant was commissioned in three phases and has three units each generating 15MW. The first unit was commissioned in June 1981, the second and third units in November 1982 and March 1985.

Olkaria II Power Station, Africa’s largest Geothermal Power Station to date was built in the year 2000 and generates 70MW. It is the second geothermal plant owned and operated by KenGen. The second phase of Olkaria II was commissioned in 2010 injecting an extra 35 MW of power making a total of 150MW of power generated by geothermal means.

Awaiting birth: energy cities in Kenya's arid lands

Pix. Vision2030 SecretariatTHEY WERE CONCEIVED AND  designed as resort cities, -sites meant to enhance Kenya’s tourism by extending the menu of products and destinations.  They are rich in tourism attractions. However, recent developments point to growth of mega cities where tourism will play a second fiddle to other economic activities.

In a bid to stem migration into the already congested cities and also to enhance and diversify tourism sector, Kenya will build several resort cities in the next couple of years. According to Kenya’s development blue print, vision 2030, the cities should be in place by 2030.

The cities will be located in Lamu,Kilifi and Kwale counties at the Coast and Isiolo and Turkana counties up country.

Conceptual designs of Isiolo and Turkana Resort Cities:
 mega cities waiting to happen

According to the web encyclopedia, Wikipedia www.wikipedia.org, a resort city is a city where tourism or vacationing is a primary component of the local culture and economy. Most resort towns have one or more actual resorts in or nearby.  That is what is expected of the resorts at Kilifi and Kwale counties.

However, the other three namely Lamu, Isiolo and Turkana resort cities appears set for bigger things. The three are located on the Lamu Port South Sudan Transport Corridor (LAPSSET). This corridor will include a standard gauge railway line from Lamu Port to Juba in South Sudan, an highway linking the same locations and an Oil pipeline from South Sudan Oil fields to the Lamu port. Seehttp://eaers.blogspot.com/2012/02/kenya-to-begin-construction-of-gateway.html

Then developments in the energy sector, changed all that, the corridor is beginning to look like the energy corridor of east Africa. For one, oil  has been discovered in Turkana and depending on whether its commercial viability is confirmed, which according to experts is fait accompli, will change this corridor into an energy corridor, say analysts. Apart from oil, Turkana is also home to Africa’s largest wind power energy project, the 300MW Lake Turkana wind Power project. Seehttp://eaers.blogspot.com/2012/01/africas-largest-wind-power-farm-set-to.html

Studies are ongoing in Isiolo to establish the viability of a proposed 150MW wind power project  while another is also on-going for a 300MW wind power project in the neighbouring  Marsabit county. See http://eaers.blogspot.com/2012/02/kenya-turns-to-geothermal-and-wind.html.

Toshiba Dips Toes into African Lava: New Geothermal Plant to Go Online in 2014

Toshiba has been tapped to supply equipment for Kenya’s newest geothermal power generation project. The company will supply geothermal steam turbines and generators early next year, which will go online in April 2014. Once the new power plant is active, a quarter of Kenya’s energy supply will come from stable geothermal sources.

Kenya currently has 3 geothermal plants in the Olkaria volcanic region 60 miles northwest of Nairobi, which supply about 10% of its current electrical capacity. With equipment from Toshiba, Toyota Tsusho Corporation and Hyundai Engineering plan to bring the existing plants up to 70,000 kW each and build the Olkaria IV Geothermal Power Plant.

Stabilize That Grid!

The biggest chunk of Kenya’s current power supply comes from hydropower – nearly half, which makes it pretty green already. But as the weather is inconstant and Kenya suffers a drought, water just isn’t quite reliable enough. Geothermal power should help stabilize the grid and generate steady power supply.

The Olkaria project in part funded by a loan through the Japan International Corporation Agency (JICA), and is Toshiba’s first foray into the African market; its reputation for safety and reliability made it a perfect fit for the new project. Toshiba itself is hoping that the project will help boost sales of its geothermal equipment.

Source: Eco Japan | Image: Emerging Africa Fund.

Source: Clean Technica (http://s.tt/13KXS)

http://cleantechnica.com/2011/11/08/toshiba-dips-toes-into-african-lava-new-geothermal-plant-to-go-online-in-2014/ 

Geothermal Production in Kenya

This post was originally published on ecomagination.com and has been republished with permission.

“GDC Strikes Steam in Menengai,” exclaims the cover of this spring’s issue of Steam, the magazine of Kenya’s Geothermal Development Company. A column of steam spurts high into a deep blue sky in the cover photo—the geothermal industry’s equivalent of the black column that spurts from a successful oil well.

But steam is even more valuable than oil, at least to Kenya, which aims to produce 5,000 megawatts of power from geothermal energy by 2030.

“Power from geothermal is a sure means of improving our people’s way of life,” says Stephen Kalonzo Nusyoka, the Vice President of Kenya.

Geothermal is the only alternative energy source that is currently cost-competitive with fossil fuels [Editor's note: that's highly debatable -- see this wind power page and this solar power article and this solar power page. -ZS]. One analysis even says that geothermal is cheaper to produce: 3.6 cents per kilowatt-hour as compared to 5.5 cents per kilowatt-hour for coal.

However, that analysis does not account for two things: the cost of financing geothermal projects and the cost of exploration—actually finding the steam. In Kenya, and across the world, both costs can be high. But a cadre of determined individuals are working to overcome those challenges and unlock what they believe will be the engine of economic growth for East Africa.

Kenyan Wind Farm, Africa’s Largest, to Produce Lowest Cost Electricity

Famous in anthropological circles as the site of some of the earliest hominid remains, northern Kenya’s Lake Turkana is set to be the site of Africa’s largest wind farm. Project plans call for a total of 365 wind turbines to be built there, generating enough clean, renewable, grid-connected electrical power to meet more than 20% of the country’s electricity needs. On top of that, the electricity will be sold to national utility Kenya Power for 20 years at 7.52 euro cents per kilowatt-hour (kWh) (~9.9 US cents), a rate that, along with Kenya’s geothermal power, is the lowest in the country, according to an AFP news report.

“Here you can produce wind power at an interesting cost, without subsidies,” unlike the case in Europe, head of Dutch-led consortium Lake Turkana Wind Power Group Carlo Van Wageningen told AFP.

With a maximum rated capacity projected at 300 MW, Lake Turkana Wind Farm will be the largest in Africa. An initial 50 MW is scheduled to come on-line in mid-2014 with the balance due for commissioning in early 2015.

The 585 million euro (~$772 million) project also entails building a 428-kilometer (~265-mile) transmission line that will link the wind farm to the national grid, an element of the project that is being undertaken by Spain’s Isolux Corsan.

The consortium has signed a $756 million contract with Denmark’s Vestas A/S to supply 365 Vestas V52 wind turbines, each with a capacity of 850 kW

Kenya’s Green Energy Drive

Kenyans pay more for electricity than residents of any other African country except Rwanda. Even so, power cuts and power losses are common. Given its substantial wind, geothermal and solar energy resources, renewable energy could go a long way to improving the situation, as well as yielding significant benefits in terms of economic development, jobs creation and environmental conservation and protection.

630 million pesos for bioenergy projects

 by Cristian Fuentes

In order to promote the search for solutions so bioenergy can be strongly incorporated in the national energy matrix and obtain scientific-technological knowledge and innovative solutions to contribute to national energy development; Conicyt through Fondef, together with the National Energy Commission, created the Bioenergy Program, which will present its first projects awarded on June 13th at the Universidad de Concepción.

This initiative will provide financial support with over 630 million pesos to four research and development initiatives (R&D) of the Universidad Austral, Universidad de Concepción and Universidad Mayor, whose results are focused on obtaining new products, processes and services, or substantially improving the existing ones, in order to resolve critical issues in the value chain of liquid, solid and gaseous fuels.

Ceremony

The launching ceremony of the four projects will be held on Monday, June 13th, from 10:30 in the auditorium of the Faculty of Forest Sciences at the Universidad de Concepción. The event will be attended by Gonzalo Herrera, executive director of Fondef, as well as managers and researchers from the awarded initiatives, in addition to political and academic authorities and representatives from companies and the academic community. 

Awarded Projects

The Universidad Austral de Chile will develop a project that seeks to use mixed plantations in order to achieve that the simultaneous production of pulpwood and biomass for bioenergy products can be carried out in the same area. 

Biofuel Investments Threaten Local Land Rights in Tanzania

By Peter G. Veit, Mercedes Stickler, Candy Schibli and Catherine Easton1

28 February 2012

Just a couple weeks ago, Iowa State University (ISU) withdrew from advising the Iowa-based firm AgriSol Energy on its planned land deal in Tanzania. AgriSol Energy is seeking to acquire 320,000 hectares in Rukwa Region for large-scale food and biofuel production.isocially responsible ISU’s role had been to ensure that the for-profit venture be and benefit local communities. However, the development of AgriSol’s large-scale farm requires the eviction of 162,000 local farmers – hardly a benefit to the local communities.

In October 2011, work at the jatrophaiileave until further noticeplantation in Kisarawe District, Tanzania came to a halt when managers of Sun Biofuels, a British company, told more than 300 workers to collect their final paychecks and . The company established the 8000-plus hectare estate in 2008, but is now facing serious financial problems.
These layoffs came on the heels of BioShape, a Dutch company, ceasing operations in November 2009 on its 34,000 hectare jatropha plantation in Kilwa District. BioShape had employed more than 100 permanent staff, and about 700 casual laborers.iiiBioShape was officially In February 2010, the company suspended its last field operations and stopped paying salaries to its local employees and, in June 2010, declared bankrupt.
Other biofuel projects in Tanzania are also struggling to sustain their operations, including Swedish Sekab AB, Europe’s largest ethanol company. Despite these experiences, however, the government of Tanzania is considering allocating even more land to biofuel companies such as AgriSol Energy.
Most rural people in Tanzania make a living off their land, including subsistence farming and animal husbandry. When their land is taken—even if properly compensated for their losses—many fall into deeper poverty. New policies and government practices are urgently needed to protect local property rights to land and natural resources.
A Haven for Biofuel Investments

U.S. and Tanzania Sign Partnership for Growth

At a ceremony held at Prime Minister Mizengo Pinda's office on February 11, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Johnnie Carson and Tanzanian Energy Minister William Mganga Ngeleja signed a Statement of Principles reaffirming the bilateral commitment to supporting the Partnership for Growth (PfG) Initiative. Tanzania is one of four countries globally - including El Salvador, Ghana, and the Philippines - participating in the PfG Initiative which aims to significantly enhance U.S. bilateral relationships with a select set of countries to accelerate and sustain broad-based economic growth, with the goal of creating the next generation of emerging markets. 

The United States developed PfG to implement development efforts through a more comprehensive and creative approach beyond traditional aid. The initiative will consider all the appropriate instruments of both governments to promote economic growth, including strategies to leverage the resources and tools of partners, especially the private sector, and to increase effectiveness of policies and institutions necessary for development. 

Assistant Secretary of State Johnnie Carson is in Tanzania leading an energy trade mission from February 8 through 11, that includes senior-level government officials and nine private American energy companies interested in potential investment projects with the aim of enhancing the country's ability to generate electric power. The Corporate Council on Africa is co-sponsoring the mission.

http://tanzania.usembassy.gov/pr_02112012.html

Tanzania buys majority stake in Mtwara plant

A gas plant in Tanzania. Picture: File 

By JOHN MBALAMWEZI  (email the author) 


Posted  Saturday, February 11  2012 at  17:07

Tanzania and Canadian oil and gas company Wentworth Resource Ltd have reached an agreement over the purchase of the latter’s Mtwara gas power plant.

In the deal, state energy firm Tanzania Electric Supply Company Ltd (Tanesco) will acquire the 18MW gas-fired power plant and associated assets in Tanzania.

Tanesco will buy 100 per cent shares of the power plant at $13.5 million.

Wentworth managing director Geoff Bury said the funds from the acquisitions will allow the firm to streamline its Tanzania operations and focus on exploring for hydrocarbons and developing and producing its known natural gas resources.

“Wentworth is looking forward to continuing to be a reliable, long-term gas supplier to the Mtwara Power Plant and to being a gas supply partner with Tanesco in other parts of Tanzania,” said.

Top US Diplomat Leads Energy Investors' Visit to Dar

The Songas gas plant in Tanzania. Executives of leading US energy companies are scheduled to arrive in Tanzania on February 8 to explore opportunities for investing in power-generation and fuel-supply projects, a State Department official said on Saturday. Photo/FILE 

Executives of some leading US energy companies are scheduled to arrive in Tanzania on February 8 to explore opportunities for investing in power-generation and fuel-supply projects, a State Department official said on Saturday.

The public-private energy trade mission is led by Johnnie Carson, the US assistant secretary of state for African affairs, and is co-sponsored by the Corporate Council on Africa, a grouping of American businesses with interests in Africa.

The delegation will discuss “specific challenges to the attraction of private investment for energy infrastructure projects,” according to a State Department briefing paper.

Tanzania Sisal Biogas

The Food and Agriculture Organisation study on Small-Scale Bioenergy Initiatives looked at one operation in Tanzania that was using sissal waste for biogas and biofertiliser. The SISO Project benefited 1,000 families with incomes and electricity through the grid.

Lying on the Coast of Tanzania, bordering Kenya, Tanga Region has a population of around 1.7million, with a growth rate in population from 1998-2002 of 1.8% and a population density of 60 persons per square kilometre. The population of Tanga Region has been increasing since 1957, and as a result of high population density, forests have become endangered and wood scarce. The increasing need for income and food is not matched by increased economic development or food production.


Sisal is the most important cash crop, used to produce yarns, ropes, carpets, clothing and composites, and sold to the domestic and international markets. Since 1999 Katani Ltd, a sisal growing company, has developed a system of smallholder and out-grower sisal farming, on land owned by the company and in the surrounding areas. Katani has developed the first biogas plant in the world to convert sisal biomass to biogas. This is used to run electricity generators which power production machinery, with excess electricity supplied to out-growers/smallholders homes, schools and hospitals.


Organic fertiliser is produced as a by-product, process heat is used for drying fibre and could be used to dry paper made from sisal pulp. Using current production methods, only 4% of the actual plant is recovered as fibre. The residue was either burnt, producing carbon dioxide, or rotted naturally, producing methane. The use of sisal waste for bio-energy is thus environmentally beneficial. Converting the waste to biogas increases the profit to farmers, since 80% of the plant mass is suitable for biogas production.


Investment for a biogas project came from The Common Fund for Commodities (UN Body) US$ 927,712; UNIDO US$ 225,600; and the Tanzanian Government US$ 350,000, during phase one of the pilot plant. Ongoing financing is received from government and external agencies. The project is managed by UNIDO and a 16-member coordinating committee with representation from the FAO, CFC, UNIDO, TSB, Katani Limited, the Sisal Association of Tanzania (SAT) and relevant government ministries. The biogas project is profitable and Katani Ltd plans to provide local accessto low cost bioenergy via a system of mini grids from their biogas plants. Funds are being sought to undertake the work and plans are under development.